Poll puts Democrat Jason Crow 11 points ahead in Colo.’s most competitive House seat
Author: Associated Press - September 17, 2018 - Updated: September 17, 2018
Anna Staver, The Denver Post, via AP
Colorado Democrats are starting to believe this could be the year they finally flip Colorado’s most competitive congressional seat.
A New York Times poll of the 6th Congressional District released Friday put Democratic challenger Jason Crow 11 points ahead of U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Aurora.
Crow’s 51-40 lead was outside the poll’s margin of error, but it also showed 9 percent of the people who responded haven’t made up their minds or wouldn’t say how they plan to vote.
“But they — and others — could change their minds,” according to The Times. “We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative.”
Despite the caveats in the polling data, Crow volunteers gathered at Gateway High School on Saturday morning to door knock for their candidate were excited by the results. Campaign volunteers and elected officials, however, cautioned against thinking this means the seat is theirs.
“That’s great news, but we haven’t seen the shock and awe of the Koch brothers” and other big-money Republican donors, U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette told the auditorium.
The race is considered one of the most competitive in the country with both parties describing it as part of their path to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
“No pressure,” DeGette told the crowd at Gateway High School. “It’s all on you.”
Coffman’s managed to successfully hold his Aurora-centered district even as it grows bluer and more diverse each year. Hillary Clinton won it by 10 points in 2016; Coffman beat his Democratic challenger 51-43.
The district is almost evenly split between registered Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters. That’s about the same split as the people who responded to the New York Times pollsters.
What could be of concern to Coffman is just 37 percent of those people reported having a favorable view of President Donald Trump and 54 percent hope Democrats take control of the House in November.
“If I had a dollar for every time an East Coast pollster or political analyst said this was the year Coffman goes down, I’d have as much cash as one of those Pelosi super PACs smearing Coffman every other commercial,” Coffman campaign manager Tyler Sandberg said. “This is a margin-of-error race, just like it was at Labor Day in 2012, 2014 and 2016. Team Coffman is dug in and ready for the fight.”